April 03, 2020

How I blew an opportunity to buy equity funds for cheap

Equity investments are losing valuation due to the market crash. Depending on whom you ask, what to do in such a situation varies. The advice I took was to maintain asset allocation and rebalance when the allocation is off.

It’s not obvious how maintaining asset allocation can help during a market crash like this. But it’s not hard to understand if you think about it a little. Let’s say your desired asset allocation is 30% debt and 70% equity. When equity loses value and debt increases in value, your portfolio could get to something like 38% debt and 62% equity. The advice is to sell your (potentially overvalued) debt and buy undervalued equity at a cheaper price. As the equity market recovers, you would make some profit.

I did have a desired asset allocation before market rout, but due to some (self-induced) complexity, I had messed it up. I was over-invested in equity than I had thought. I discovered that mistake when I was taking a deeper look at my portfolio. I also found out that equity losing value had brought my portfolio down to the desired allocation. I don’t have to do anything for now; the market has rebalanced my assets. 🤦🏾‍♂️

But that also means that, because my asset allocation was off, I am not able to buy more equity at a cheaper price now. The equity I hold were bought at a higher price and I am holding onto the loss. It’s a lost opportunity.

While it’s true that nothing stops me from buying more equity now even if it means my asset allocation will be off for a while. I have decided to not do that because that’s essentially timing the market. There’s no guarantee that the market will recover after my equity purchase. Debt funds, at least in India, are not really going up in value either. Because many companies are at the risk of going bankrupt, investors are not keen to buy debt funds as well. Because demand is fairly flat, the value is also mostly flat. By selling my debt funds now, I may not be selling overvalued assets.

Moral of the story: asset allocation is actually important. Assets being off balance could lead to lost profits.

February 20, 2020

Choosing mutual funds to invest in

You want to invest in mutual funds, but you don’t know which of the thousands of available funds is right for you. The easiest thing to do is just look at historical returns and pick one that has performed well in the past. That’s pretty much what I did when I started investing in mutual funds a few years ago. Unsurprisingly, the returns weren’t as mind-blowing as I had expected.

Fast forward to 2020, I am now a Kuvera customer. (Plug: join using my referral code JK1P3 and get 100 Kuvera coins for free.) In addition to providing a well thought-out investment platform for free, Kuvera has written quite a bit about how to think about investing and wealth management. From the experience using Kuvera and reading about the thinking behind their decisions, I think I am starting to see some of the intricacies in choosing a good fund.

In October 2018, Kuvera changed their recommended funds. In October 2018, they started recommending DSP Equal Nifty 50 instead of IDFC Nifty. I compared the facts and performance of these 2 funds, and it was surprising how unattractive the DSP fund looked to a novice investor like me.

In the past year, the IDFC fund has given an impressive 15.25% return while the DSP fund has given a mere 6.69%. The DSP fund’s return is below the benchmark return, actually!

Comparison of past 1 year fund performance. IDFC Nity has yielded 15.25% returns while DSP Equal Nifty 50 has yielded only 6.69% returns.

The fact that the DSP fund is underperforming the benchmark is reflected in its “info” statistic. The IDFC fund has 0.8 for “info” while the DSP fund has -0.04! The IDFC fund wins in other attributes too: it has a cheaper expense ratio (0.24% vs 0.38%) as well as barely less volatility (14.14% vs 14.25%).

Fund statistics comparison between IDFC Nifty and DSP Equal Nifty 50

How then is the DSP fund better than the IDFC fund? They mention 3 reasons:
  • Lower concentration of financials
  • Historic EW premium
  • Buy low–sell high in a systematic way
Of these, I don’t fully understand the “buy low–sell high” point, likely because I haven’t read the fund documents.

Lower concentration of financials
This becomes obvious if you look at the stocks held by these funds. The IDFC fund holds HDFC Bank shares for 10.6% of its value. In other words, you would be buying HDFC Bank shares roughly worth ₹10.60 if you were to buy the IDFC fund for ₹100. Intuitively, that is not something you’d want to do if you want to diversify your investments. But there’s more than just intuition.

Top 10 holdings of IDFC Nifty and DSP Equal 50 funds

Historic EW premium
I think the “EW” refers to “equal weight” here. The DSP fund distributes the money roughly equally between every share in the Nifty 50 basket. While intuitively this is a good diversification strategy, apparently this has yielded better returns historically. Gaurav Rastogi, CEO of Kuvera, states in a comment:
The reason we choose DSP Equal Weight Nifty fund instead of a plain vanilla Nifty index (IDFC) fund is because Equal Weight indices have outperformed their plain vanilla indices globally and in our back test in India as well on a risk adjusted basis.

What are my takeaways from this?
  • Past returns are useful data, but comparing the returns of 2 funds may not give us the full picture.
  • Understanding how a fund is managed such as how they choose shares, the objective of the fund, etc are important. Investors should understand what the fund manager does with our money.
  • Because most of us don't have the time or skill needed to study the mutual fund options, following the recommendations of good financial advisors is an easy shortcut to picking good investments. (How you tell if an advisor is good, I have no idea!)

February 03, 2020

Knowing where you’re headed

It’s far more productive to make tiny progress in solving the real problem than making huge progress in solving an irrelevant problem.

January 22, 2020

Fear of success

Just like how one fears failure, fear of success is also a real thing. Maybe it’s just the fear of unknown, and you haven’t seen success that often.

No matter what the cause is, fear of success can be terrifying!

January 03, 2020

Communication effort

If the sender of a message spends time crafting the message, making it easier to read, readers can understand it without much effort.

If the sender did not spend as much time in crafting the message, each reader would have to spend more time/energy in understanding the written message.

That should be obvious to everyone. Here’s my random thought: maybe, the effort it takes to communicate something is fairly constant. What varies is how much of that effort is contributed by the writer vs the reader.