5 Dec 2024

There is no such thing called ‘overdiversification’

Some phrases annoy me whenever I hear them. ‘Rat race’ is one: it’s a disrespectful, polasing name invented by people who just want to sell their stuff or idea. Regular people need not repeat that slur.

Hard earned money’ is another: money deserves just as much respect irrespective of how easy a time you had earning it.

The most recent in that list is ‘overdiversification’. Hearing it annoys me because overdiversification is not a real thing.

Let’s say you hold N assets in your portfolio. Adding another asset that is positively correlated with any other existing asset does not yield much of a benefit. Example: You already hold UTI Nifty 50 index fund. Adding ICICI Nifty 50 index or a large cap equity fund is not going to give you much of a diversification. By adding this fund you are not overdivesifying, but you are just adding clutter. Portfolio clutter indicates a real problem, but that problem is not “too much diversification”. Portfolio clutter is a different problem.

Let’s say you hold an Indian equity mutual fund (it doesn’t matter which category). Credit risk debt funds have low correlation with equity, so adding it will give you diversification benefits. But most retail investors are better off without such credit risk in their portfolio. This diversification doesn’t help because it’s just a bad asset to hold. The drawbacks of such a risky asset easily overshadow the benefits. This is just poor asset selection rather than “too much diversification”. (Or you can call it “diworsification” if you feel cute.)

Overdiversification is just the wrong name people use to describe one of these unrelated problems.

If you think this post is making a pedantic argument, you’re right. Cribbing about the choice of words people use is indeed pedantic. But pedantry has its uses, too. Calling things by their correct names is crucial to avoid misunderstanding. I’ll let you decide whether or not to correct someone using the word overdiversification, but you should know that people often use this word to describe very different problems.

29 Nov 2024

The impact of “taxed at slab” — Take 2

I had a review call with my financial advisor yesterday. I expressed my desire to invest in debt-like mutual funds that are not pure bond funds to avoid paying tax at the slab rate. The advisor wasn’t particularly excited. He wanted me to invest in gilt funds to avoid credit risk and liquidity risk (which are more in corporate bonds than sovereign bonds).

While I understand that he does not want to recommend a risky asset to a client, I am also hesitant to lose money to tax when sufficiently good alternatives exist. After the meeting, I decided to run the numbers to quantify the difference in the final corpus while paying 30% tax vs 12.5%.

The results are not surprising. Once the holding period gets close to 10 years, the difference in the final corpus rises close to 10%. Holding for shorter durations, say 5 years or 8 years, it’s probably not a bad idea to stick to pure bond funds. For shorter durations, we get safety without much of a loss in the final corpus.

The following tables show the comparison for various holding periods and assumed annual growth rate. These calculations assume an initial investment of ₹1,00,000, but the delta percentage will remain the same irrespective of the principal amount.

PS: ‘Tax at slab rate’ has been a problem for me for a while now. My previous calculation did a similar comparison for higher growth rate and shorter holding periods.

Num of years ➡3 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 1,14,117₹ 1,12,352₹ 1,09,8822.2%
5.0%₹ 1,15,763₹ 1,13,792₹ 1,11,0342.4%
5.5%₹ 1,17,424₹ 1,15,246₹ 1,12,1972.6%
6.0%₹ 1,19,102₹ 1,16,714₹ 1,13,3712.9%
6.5%₹ 1,20,795₹ 1,18,196₹ 1,14,5563.1%
7.0%₹ 1,22,504₹ 1,19,691₹ 1,15,7533.3%
7.5%₹ 1,24,230₹ 1,21,201₹ 1,16,9613.5%
8.0%₹ 1,25,971₹ 1,22,725₹ 1,18,1803.7%
8.5%₹ 1,27,729₹ 1,24,263₹ 1,19,4103.9%
9.0%₹ 1,29,503₹ 1,25,815₹ 1,20,6524.1%

Num of years ➡5 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 1,24,618₹ 1,21,541₹ 1,17,2333.5%
5.0%₹ 1,27,628₹ 1,24,175₹ 1,19,3403.9%
5.5%₹ 1,30,696₹ 1,26,859₹ 1,21,4874.2%
6.0%₹ 1,33,823₹ 1,29,595₹ 1,23,6764.6%
6.5%₹ 1,37,009₹ 1,32,383₹ 1,25,9064.9%
7.0%₹ 1,40,255₹ 1,35,223₹ 1,28,1795.2%
7.5%₹ 1,43,563₹ 1,38,118₹ 1,30,4945.5%
8.0%₹ 1,46,933₹ 1,41,066₹ 1,32,8535.8%
8.5%₹ 1,50,366₹ 1,44,070₹ 1,35,2566.1%
9.0%₹ 1,53,862₹ 1,47,130₹ 1,37,7046.4%

Num of years ➡10 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 1,55,297₹ 1,48,385₹ 1,38,7086.5%
5.0%₹ 1,62,889₹ 1,55,028₹ 1,44,0237.1%
5.5%₹ 1,70,814₹ 1,61,963₹ 1,49,5707.7%
6.0%₹ 1,79,085₹ 1,69,199₹ 1,55,3598.2%
6.5%₹ 1,87,714₹ 1,76,750₹ 1,61,4008.7%
7.0%₹ 1,96,715₹ 1,84,626₹ 1,67,7019.2%
7.5%₹ 2,06,103₹ 1,92,840₹ 1,74,2729.6%
8.0%₹ 2,15,892₹ 2,01,406₹ 1,81,12510.1%
8.5%₹ 2,26,098₹ 2,10,336₹ 1,88,26910.5%
9.0%₹ 2,36,736₹ 2,19,644₹ 1,95,71510.9%

Num of years ➡15 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 1,93,528₹ 1,81,837₹ 1,65,4709.0%
5.0%₹ 2,07,893₹ 1,94,406₹ 1,75,5259.7%
5.5%₹ 2,23,248₹ 2,07,842₹ 1,86,27310.4%
6.0%₹ 2,39,656₹ 2,22,199₹ 1,97,75911.0%
6.5%₹ 2,57,184₹ 2,37,536₹ 2,10,02911.6%
7.0%₹ 2,75,903₹ 2,53,915₹ 2,23,13212.1%
7.5%₹ 2,95,888₹ 2,71,402₹ 2,37,12112.6%
8.0%₹ 3,17,217₹ 2,90,065₹ 2,52,05213.1%
8.5%₹ 3,39,974₹ 3,09,978₹ 2,67,98213.5%
9.0%₹ 3,64,248₹ 3,31,217₹ 2,84,97414.0%

Num of years ➡20 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 2,41,171₹ 2,23,525₹ 1,98,82011.1%
5.0%₹ 2,65,330₹ 2,44,664₹ 2,15,73111.8%
5.5%₹ 2,91,776₹ 2,67,804₹ 2,34,24312.5%
6.0%₹ 3,20,714₹ 2,93,124₹ 2,54,49913.2%
6.5%₹ 3,52,365₹ 3,20,819₹ 2,76,65513.8%
7.0%₹ 3,86,968₹ 3,51,097₹ 3,00,87814.3%
7.5%₹ 4,24,785₹ 3,84,187₹ 3,27,35014.8%
8.0%₹ 4,66,096₹ 4,20,334₹ 3,56,26715.2%
8.5%₹ 5,11,205₹ 4,59,804₹ 3,87,84315.7%
9.0%₹ 5,60,441₹ 5,02,886₹ 4,22,30916.0%

Num of years ➡25 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 3,00,543₹ 2,75,476₹ 2,40,38012.7%
5.0%₹ 3,38,635₹ 3,08,806₹ 2,67,04513.5%
5.5%₹ 3,81,339₹ 3,46,172₹ 2,96,93714.2%
6.0%₹ 4,29,187₹ 3,88,039₹ 3,30,43114.8%
6.5%₹ 4,82,770₹ 4,34,924₹ 3,67,93915.4%
7.0%₹ 5,42,743₹ 4,87,400₹ 4,09,92015.9%
7.5%₹ 6,09,834₹ 5,46,105₹ 4,56,88416.3%
8.0%₹ 6,84,848₹ 6,11,742₹ 5,09,39316.7%
8.5%₹ 7,68,676₹ 6,85,092₹ 5,68,07317.1%
9.0%₹ 8,62,308₹ 7,67,020₹ 6,33,61617.4%

Num of years ➡30 years
Growth rate⬇ / Tax rate ➡Pre-tax corpus12.5%30.0%Corpus delta
4.5%₹ 3,74,532₹ 3,40,215₹ 2,92,17214.1%
5.0%₹ 4,32,194₹ 3,90,670₹ 3,32,53614.9%
5.5%₹ 4,98,395₹ 4,48,596₹ 3,78,87715.5%
6.0%₹ 5,74,349₹ 5,15,055₹ 4,32,04416.1%
6.5%₹ 6,61,437₹ 5,91,257₹ 4,93,00616.6%
7.0%₹ 7,61,226₹ 6,78,572₹ 5,62,85817.1%
7.5%₹ 8,75,496₹ 7,78,559₹ 6,42,84717.4%
8.0%₹ 10,06,266₹ 8,92,982₹ 7,34,38617.8%
8.5%₹ 11,55,825₹ 10,23,847₹ 8,39,07818.0%
9.0%₹ 13,26,768₹ 11,73,422₹ 9,58,73718.3%

25 Nov 2024

Bank deposits vs debt mutual funds

Bank Deposits vs Debt Mutual Funds is a false dichotomy. One is not a replacement for the other. Most of us need both. Yet, people constantly compare them because they both seem to serve the same purpose.

A bank deposit is a way to hold cash. Holding cash means it’s for a short-term need (which includes potential short-term needs such as an emergency fund).

A debt mutual fund is a way to add stability to a long-term investment portfolio. It’s main purpose is not to hold cash, but to act as a shock absorber.

Slide from a recent talk I gave on debt mutual funds (click to enlarge)

Bank deposits shield you from the capital loss risk. Scheduled commercial banks regulated by RBI have never lost a single rupee of depositor money. The confidence investors have with bank deposits is well-earned and well-deserved. However, capital loss is not the only thing an investor should be considering.

Disclosure: I am biased against bank deposits. Please keep that in mind when you read the rest of this post. I try to be objective, but knowing my bias can help you make a better decision for managing your own money.

Concentration risk

You may trust your bank with a small sum. You may feel confident that they’ll return the money when you ask for it. But there is a point at which you start to feel uncomfortable. That number could be a few lakhs for some and a few crores for others. But we all start to feel jittery when the size of the deposits grow beyond a certain size. Debt mutual funds alleviate this concentration risk by deploying our money in dozens of different securities.

Tax drag

You may make a deposit that pays 8% return on your deposits. But if you are in the 30% tax slab, your effective return is only 5.6% after paying tax every year. Someone with a sizeable fixed income portfolio can save a significant sum just by avoiding tax payments every year.

Let’s think of a hypothetical bank deposit that pays 8% return and compare it with a hypothetical debt fund that appreciates by 8% per year. Imagine an investment of ₹1,00,000 made by an investor who falls in the 30% tax slab. At the end of 10 years, the bank deposit would have grown to ₹1,72,440 (after taxes). The same principal would have grown to ₹1,81,124 (after taxes) if invested in our hypothetical debt mutual fund.

While this ₹9,000 may not look like much, the difference becomes more pronounced with longer holding durations. For 25 years, the final corpus values are ₹3,90,479 and ₹5,09,392 for bank deposit and debt mutual fund respectively. (If 25 years sounds unrealistic, ask yourself: how long does your retirement portfolio need to last?)

Chart showing after-tax corpus value of bank deposit vs mutual fund after 10, 15, 20, and 25 years
Chart created at canva.com

Manual vs automatic

Bank deposits are too manual, and require maintenance. Every time you have money to invest, you need to decide whether to make a 1 year deposit or a 5 year deposit. If you get that duration wrong, you may need to pay a penalty when you prematurely withdraw your bank deposit. Every time you need to take money out, you need to decide which deposit to liquidate. No such hassle with debt mutual funds. You invest and redeem as and when you need; no penalty for misjudging when you need the money.

Bank deposits are a great source of FOMO (fear of missing out) when interest rates rise. Many people had made bank deposits during Covid when the interest rate was low. When the RBI hiked interest rate, they all had a conundrum—whether to prematurely close their previous deposit or not. No such hassle with a debt mutual fund. Your money will earn “market interest” irrespective of whether the rate rises or falls.

Better visibility of where your money is

If you invest in a debt mutual fund, the AMC will disclose the fund’s portfolio with you every 14 days. You can clearly see how much of your money is lent to whom. If you don’t like what you see in that list, you have the power to move your money to a different fund.

With bank deposits, the traces of “your money” is completely lost. Your money becomes a part of the very large pool of liabilities that the bank has. That is not necessarily a huge risk considering that banks have not lost depositor money. But something for you to consider and decide what makes you feel better.

Potential to take higher/different risks

There are many different categories of debt mutual funds that let you choose exactly what you want. Do you want to avoid credit risk as much as possible? Invest in a gilt fund. Do you want to earn a bit more return by lending to private borrowers? Invest in a corporate bond fund. Do you want an asset that’s as close to a bank deposit but in the form of a mutual fund? Invest in a liquid fund. (Disclaimer: quality of funds can wildly vary within every category.)

So many debt mutual fund options exist because different investors want different assets for their portfolios. Bank deposits, on the other hand, are all the same: you deposit money today, and the bank returns it after the agreed upon time has elapsed.

What is the flip side of this? It is possible for an investor to pick a wrong mutual fund that doesn’t suit them; no such risk with bank deposits because they are all the same.

• • •

All these differences should tell you where each asset fits: bank deposits are to hold cash. You don’t care about optimising the return; you pay a high tax for the capital preservation safety; you pay an inconvenience fee to the bank in case you change your mind and want your money back prematurely.

Debt mutual funds are for long-term holdings. You don’t really need that money in the next few years; you appreciate the bouquet of options that you can choose from; you are willing to reduce the capital preservation safety by a tiny bit in exchange for letting a fund manager manage the money.

One is not a replacement for the other because they serve different needs. Choose what works for you based on what you need, and what makes you feel at ease.

Fund benchmarks hint at fund portfolios

Hybrid mutual funds are a little tricky to evaluate. Not only do you have to understand the strategy the fund will follow, but you also have to know the asset allocation that the fund will maintain. The fund’s scheme information document holds the authoritative answer for how the money is invested, but the benchmark chosen by the fund can give a quick hint on what to expect. I use benchmarks as an early signal to filter out funds that may not be suitable for my needs.

Let us look at a few examples of multi asset allocation funds. All the following screenshots are from ValueResearchOnline. I will not name the funds because identifying individual funds is not necessary for this exercise, and I don’t want to give unintentional signals (positive or negative) about any specific fund.

This is a popular mix of assets: 65% equity qualifies the fund to be taxed like equity. That may sound attractive to many investors, but I generally avoid such funds because I reach for hybrid funds only when I want to keep volatility low.

This is an interesting one, and honestly an appealing choice for me. This fund is well diversified with a global equity index and a commodity index added to the benchmark. (This is the first time I am even looking at this fund, actually.)

This is a simpler fund with just 3 asset classes in the benchmark. I also like that A-II debt is the largest asset class in the benchmark, which is a good hint that this fund will be less volatile than many of its peers.

While benchmarks give us a good hint on how the fund will invest our money, it is crucial to look at other sources of information, too. Reading the scheme information document, looking at the history of the fund (if available), and the history of the AMC (if available) can give us valuable information on what to expect from the fund.

21 Nov 2024

Why is volatility of investment assets bad?

Here are some samples of recent price movements of the Alphabet share (GOOG).

  • Between 28-Aug-2020 and 25-Sep-2020, the price of GOOG fell from $82.22 to $72.25. That’s a fall of 12.13% in 29 days.
  • 2022 was particularly volatile.
    • Between 25-Mar-2022 and 29-Apr-2022, the share price fell from $141.52 to $114.97. A fall of 18.76% in 36 days.
    • In the next 50 days, it fell 6.18% further to reach the price of $107.87 on 17-Jun-2022.
    • In the next 57 days, the price rose by 13.70% to $122.65 on 12-Aug-2022.
    • In the next 85 days, the price fell again to $86.70—a fall of 29.31%.
  • Between 5-Jul-2024 and 6-Sep-2024, the price fell from $191.96 to $152.13. A fall of 20.75% in 27 days.
5 years price graph of GOOG at the time of publishing

I used to not worry about volatility. If the price anyway appreciates after a fall, I used to think, just wait for the price to go up. Why try to reduce or avoid volatility? That’s how I used to think, but experience has changed my stance.

I hold some Alphabet shares (GOOG). Twice in my life, I have wanted to sell these shares for important and time sensitive needs. Both times, GOOG had fallen badly. Once I sold the shares at a low price; the other time I had to arrange money through different means.

Volatility is bad if you expect to use the asset. If you need to sell a volatile asset in the next few months, you have no idea what price you will get. If you pledge a volatile asset to take a loan, you have no idea when the margin will be too low and you may need to sell the asset at a low price.

But someone who doesn’t really need to use the asset has no reason to worry about volatility.

In practical terms, the advice may boil down to this:

  • Sell your volatile assets much before you need the cash. For individual company stocks, having a runway of a few years will (hopefully) give you enough opportunities to sell the stocks in batches to accumulate cash.
  • Having a clear idea of how much money you need for consumption—your life goals such as retirement, children’s education, etc—can be very helpful. You need a strategy to manage volatility of the money you need. The money that you don’t need can be held as volatile assets without a worry.

11 Nov 2024

Drawdown of the Nifty 500 Value 50 index

The theory is that value stocks have a margin of safety, and hence, they tend to fall less. Intuitively, if you already buy stocks that are priced lower than their worth, how much more can they fall? They should fall less than stocks that are priced more than they are worth.

Investopedia also says the same:

Value stocks are at least theoretically considered to have a lower level of risk and volatility associated with them because they are usually found among larger, more established companies. And even if they don’t return to the target price that analysts or investors predict, they may still offer some capital growth.

However, the Nifty 500 Value 50 index has historically fallen more than the broad market Nifty 500 index. 

Image source: ETMoney’s Instagram post

I have thoughts on why this could be, but they are mostly just opinions rather than facts with data to back them. I’ll just say one thing: don’t invest in this Value index if you prefer to avoid large drawdowns.

PS: Also, don’t think that this index usually does better than Nifty 500. The rolling return data on the 5th image of the same ETMoney post makes it clear that the Nifty 500 index is a lot more reliable.

7 Nov 2024

How can banks retain customers?

I used to be an HDFC Bank customer. Some 5 years ago, the staff at my HDFC Bank branch were so lousy that I severed all my ties with HDFC Bank and went to Kotak Mahindra Bank. Back in 2019, Kotak was a much better experience than HDFC, especially with their much improved net and mobile banking interfaces.

I was a happy Kotak Mahindra Bank customer. But other than a bank account, there was little else that Kotak Mahindra Bank had for me. I didn’t know this back then, but now I see that this is a vulnerable position for the bank.

Each customer wants a different set of functionalities from their banks. My banking needs today include:

  1. Basic banking operations, such as receiving and sending money, supported by good net and mobile banking apps.
  2. A good set of credit cards that pay meaningful rewards.
  3. A way to optimally manage my safety buffer cash (aka emergency fund).
  4. Ability to hold small savings accounts, such as PPF and SSY accounts.
  5. Not strictly necessary, but nice to have: automatic bill payments.

Of these, Kotak Mahindra offers #1 and #3. I was a happy Kotak Mahindra customer until I learnt that HDFC Bank offered an unbeatable forex conversion rate to Google employees. I have to regularly convert USD into INR. To reduce my forex conversion cost, I decided to open an HDFC Bank account. I didn’t intend to make HDFC my primary bank, though. I thought I’d transfer all the cash to my Kotak Mahindra account and transact from there.

But within a few months, I got pulled deep into the HDFC Bank ecosystem. I got their top-of-the-line credit card that pays incredible rewards. HDFC’s SmartBuy became my primary shopping destination. HDFC SmartPay started tracking all my bills and paying them automatically.

I opened an HDFC Bank account with the intention of not using it for any transaction. Within a few months, I am in a situation where most of my transactions happen through that account!

Partner discounts and automatic bill payments are not unique to HDFC Bank—almost every bank offers it. But HDFC Bank does them so much better that I actually want to use those features. Credit cards are not unique to HDFC Bank. I am a Kotak Privy League customer, and they have given me their Zen credit card for free. But I barely ever use the Zen card because the rewards aren’t attractive. HDFC Bank’s offerings are simply more practical.

Within a year since opening the HDFC Bank account, I am considering closing off my Kotak Mahindra Bank account. This is shocking even to myself since I like Kotak Mahindra and this had been my primary bank account since 2019!

How can a bank like Kotak Mahindra not lose customers to a bank like HDFC? I think they should think more holistically and build products that work together to deliver value. HDFC’s bank accounts, credit cards, SmartBuy, SmartPay, etc work so well together that customers would often want to use those products. Competing banks need to have a vision, a viable strategy for building a good ecosystem of products, and execute well towards that vision. Such a task is so difficult that most banks would never accomplish it.

PS: I sound like an HDFC Bank fanboy, don’t I? 😅 But I am not affiliated with any bank. I am just writing down my observations and thoughts.

30 Oct 2024

Small cogs in a big engine

Balaji is a taxi driver. He drives a taxi at night. Most of his customers after 11pm go to the airport. He stays awake till well into the morning taking people to wherever they need to go.

Does Balaji contribute to making the world a better place?

On the surface, no. He is not inventing medicines to cure diseases. He is not inventing technology to ease people’s lives. He is not counselling families to stop their quarrels. All Balaji does is taking people to where they want to go.

If we use the same lens, most people’s work doesn’t contribute to making the world a better or an easier place to live in. Yet, the world has constantly been becoming a better and easier place.

What was the world like in 2014? Are our lives easier now? Of course! What was the world like in 2004? Are our lives easier now? Definitely!

One way to explain this would be to give the entire credits to specific inventions that have made our lives better. We’ll maybe find hundreds or thousands of people to cite as the reason for the improvements. Did those thousands of people accomplish all this all by themselves? No, they did not.

Taxi drivers like Balaji help scientists (and businesspersons and social workers and …) go where they need to go. Progress is faster because we have easy transportation thanks to taxi drivers. Let me repeat this in different words. In a society where there are no taxi drivers and everyone needs to manage transportation on their own, progress would be slower.

This is not just about taxi drivers, though. Everyone out there today, doing all kinds of work, is helping the society move forward. Maybe they are small cogs in a big engine, but everyone is a small cog in the humongous machine that is our society. All these small cogs come together to make the engine do wonderful things.

When you take a taxi ride next time, or when you have a plumber repair your water lines, or when you have a delivery person bring you things, or when you have a restaurant cook a meal for you—remember that they are also a reason you’re able to excel in your day job.

27 Oct 2024

Does diversification reduce risk?

Some people have the misconception that diversification reduces risk. Strictly speaking, it doesn’t.

Diversification is systemically exposing our portfolio to more kinds of risk while simultaneously capping the negative impact from any one kind of risk. The latter is the goal; the former is an unavoidable side effect.

  • Undiversified portfolio: Safe and well most of the time, but one occasional “bad event” can possibly take down the entire portfolio.
  • Diversified portfolio: Frequently impacted by “bad events”, but survives most (if not all) of them.

Diversification does not reduce risk, but rather, it manages risk by intentionally spreading the bets. Diversification sacrifices extreme highs to avoid extreme lows. (See also: Diversification shields you from extremes.)

Image designed by Freepik

This applies to diversifying across asset classes, e.g. holding equity, bonds, real estate, etc within a portfolio. This also applies to diversifying within an asset class, e.g. investing in equity from multiple countries instead of just one country, or investing in a diversified mutual fund instead of holding a few securities directly.

But don’t bring this up while advising beginners!

This “Diversification does not reduce risk” narrative is technically correct, but it’s annoyingly pedantic. Similar to claiming that mutual funds have no compounding. These narratives may be technically correct, but they both miss the point.

Practically speaking, many investors are better off investing early rather than investing late. Many investors are better off with a diversified portfolio than a concentrated portfolio. Citing these narratives—that compounding doesn’t really apply or diversification exposes you to more risk—to refute investment advice is more nuisance than it is helpful.

24 Oct 2024

What does ‘Investing for the Long Term’ mean?

The lifetime of a typical investment corpus is many decades long. Our investment corpuses often outlast our own lives. Decisions that optimise short term gains while ignoring the long term effects can end up causing a net loss.

1. Don’t invest in active strategies (such as active mutual funds, PMS funds, Smallcase, etc) if you don’t absolutely trust the firm running the fund/strategy. The fund manager will be gone in a few years, or at best a few decades. The market dynamics will change in a few decades. Will this strategy still be a winning strategy? Do you have a plan for managing the situation when the tables turn?

1a — Corollary: If you have an active strategy that you can execute on your own, and you can execute it without much hassle for decades, you can definitely follow it. But barely anyone knows such a strategy and have the conviction to bet large sums of money on that strategy.

2. Don’t get into half-baked strategies like Coffee Can Investing. Don’t enter the equity market like an Abhimanyu. You need to know when to exit and how to exit. It is not wise to assume that great companies of today will remain great investments forever.

3. Don’t invest in sectoral or thematic funds that are expected to do well in the next few years. They will see a slump after those few years. What will you do then?

3a. Don’t buy overnight sensations (such as the Nvidias/Teslas or Quant AMC funds or crypto assets) in the hope of making quick money. Yes, you may make quick money in the next few years. Can you hold onto those investments for the next 40 or 50 years? (Remember that a typical retirement corpus has a lifetime of 70 years or so.)

Both sectoral/thematic bets and overnight sensations require you to know when to exit. Unless you time the exit precisely, you may lose quite a bit of money. The vast majority of retail investors cannot exit on time. Hence, it’s better to simply swallow the FOMO (fear of missing out) and stay away from these temptations.

4. Don’t add portfolio clutter that is hard to manage. Either you will be dead and your family will have to declutter your messy portfolio. Or you will get old and won’t have the vigour to manage a cluttered portfolio. (See also: A cluttered portfolio is not a problem—it’s a symptom)

5. Don’t be afraid to correct your mistakes even if it is costly in the short term. It’s better to pay capital gain taxes today and exit a bad fund/strategy than to put your portfolio under unnecessary risk for many more years.

HDFC Bank is the largest Indian bank for a reason

I used to be an HDFC Bank customer from 2011 through 2019. I didn’t need much from my bank account, and I was reasonably happy. A few bad experiences with the branch staff in 2019 made me resolve that I’d never be an HDFC Bank customer again.

We had an either-or-survivor (EoS) account with Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB). When DBS Bank took over LVB, they absolutely messed up the EoS operation mode of our account. They revoked online access of the joint holders without even telling us! We ended up going back to HDFC Bank for this EoS account because there weren’t any other good option in our town.

A year or so later, I opened a salary account with HDFC Bank since they had some very good offers for Google employees. I also got their top-of-the line Infinia credit card, which allowed me to simplify my credit card portfolio significantly.

Photo of an HDFC Bank branch

In the recent months, I have observed that HDFC Bank has built an attractive bundle of solutions to serve its customers.

  • They have credit cards that most people in the country find attractive. (Competition from Axis Magnus fizzled away quickly primarily because of Axis Bank’s hurried reversal of all benefits.)
  • SmartPay for bill payments is amazing. I have added all my bills—utility bills, credit card bills, everything—and SmartPay automatically pays the bills on time. I think the factors that make SmartPay different are: (i) the ability to pay even credit card bills not integrated with Bharat Bill Pay and (ii) the ability to pay using any of your payment instrument, be it bank account or credit card or debit card.
  • SmartBuy and PayZapp aggregate and organise all discount offers in one place. Every bank has partners that give discounts, but the SmartBuy portal makes utilising those offers a lot easier. This is HDFC Bank going the extra mile to make sure that everyone in the ecosystem—the bank itself, the customers, and the bank’s partners—actually benefit from the offers.
  • Features and offers tailored to specific demographics. The bank finds out what different subsets of their customer base may need and they build effective solutions for them.
    • Google employees get Alphabet shares as RSUs (restricted stock units). We sell those shares and bring the money to India. HDFC Bank offers an incredible forex conversion rate for such remittances. (This rate is even better than what Wise gives. That should tell you how good this offer is.)
    • Their credit cards for non-salaried businesspeople, (e.g. BizPower) gives rewards for paying GST. Paying GST through a credit card means the customer gets interest-free credit for over a month and they also earn rewards for it!

HDFC Bank is not the flashiest. Some of their processes are old school because they have been in this for decades. But the solution suite that they have built is compelling. They are the largest bank in India, and that’s not by accident. They have earned this place by serving the real needs of their customers.